This scenario of a full swing-state sweep would replicate some dynamics observed in the 2016 election, where polling errors were widely correlated. In 2016, Trump exceeded expectations across nearly every swing state except Nevada. This underestimation was partly due to pollsters not adjusting results based on education level, a critical predictor that year. Consequently, Trump carried states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, defying forecasts and tilting the election sharply in his favour.
US Election 2024: What happens if Harris or Trump sweeps all seven swing states?
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